Saturday  December 8^th Waiheke Island, Northland,  New Zealand  South Pacific Ocean 36 46.7S 175 01.0E  Today’s Blog by David (Time zone GMT+13.00; UTC +13.00)

Our experiences of public broadcast weather forecasting over the years have led me to conclude that there is money to be made.  This is your chance to get a piece of the action.

The Market

Weather forecasting is a dark art, not a precise science. From an ease of broadcast point of view, the forecaster provides a single forecast covering a sea area perhaps 100 x 50 miles,  whereas weather events can be as localised as a mile – sometimes 500 yards – across.  Not everyone in a forecast area will experience the same weather events. Now, a forecaster does his best to provide as accurate forecast as possible; bad surprises need to be minimised so the forecast inevitably errs on the side of caution. Thus,  with the kind of unstable weather system that has been over northern New Zealand the last few days, (the passage of  frontal system followed by unstable convection systems around a weak occlusion),  the forecasts seem to have been worst case scenarios.

True, someone, somewhere in the  area was likely to be the recipient of the forecast weather – but not everyone.  And so it was with Thursday’s NW 30 gusting 40 knots forecast when we set off towards  Kawau under essentially our storm canvas  only to find ourselves wallowing around in fog in  12 knots of wind from aft …  while three people died during the passage of a tornado through  Auckland - just 25 miles  to the south of us and – to my point -  in the same forecast area as we were sailing.

Then yesterday we were again promised “W30 gusting 55  knots” and we nearly did not leave the anchorage in fear of what mayhem might ensue.  Having talked it through,  we did in fact set out expecting a  boisterous downwind (sc)reach………………..  Well, there may well have been strong gusts somewhere, but we had a very pleasant sail in a sunny W 18-25 knots – we  very rarely saw a gust of  more than 30knots on the scoreboard and only once more than 35 knots. 

The point here is that we very nearly stayed at anchor in Kawau – and in a smaller boat we certainly would have done – and we would have  missed out on what proved to be an excellent sail in pretty benign conditions.  And it is the fact that many people will indeed have stayed in port on hearing the forecast  - when they should have been out  enjoying themselves -  which statement defines the opportunity upon which you are invited to capitalise.

The Opportunity:   www.forecast-u-like.com

Forecast-u-like is an internet based premium subscription service  specially tailored to the preferences of its subscribers. On joining the service, applicants complete a questionnaire designed to assess their preferred weather conditions. These questionnaires are a little like – and about as accurate/useful as - the risk appetite questionnaires that an investment advisor asks you to complete ahead of providing you his unbiased (sic) investment advice.

When a subscriber asks for  a weather forecast,  it is tailored to mirror his preferences – in essence he always gets a forecast as close as possible to his preferences as conditions allow but the forecast does need to be credible – we can’t forecast sunshine and showers when the country is suffering blizzard conditions, but there is no need to be unduly pessimistic.

This service will have broad appeal to a wide range of users.  It   plays on the ‘feel good factor’  - subscribers will pay handsomely for  a forecast of the nicest possible weather in the circumstances – particularly if it lets them do what they want to do.  And you can change your preferences when you like – or have separate profiles (e.g. a sailing profile and a separate ski-ing profile all within a single subscription).

So for example, yesterday, we would have received a forecast of “W Force 4 or 5, Squally showers, good” – that is a sailing forecast for anyone who plans to sail down wind. Thus it will be a premium service – people will always pay money to listen to what they want to  hear. And yesterday, 99% of subscribers in the area would have got what they paid for. If they did, in fact, find  those 50kt + gusts, well, we told you so (we did say ‘Squally….’) if it rained, well,  we told you that too (‘…. showers’) and if you didn’t – all well and good.  

And if,  in fact, you spent the afternoon laid on your beam ends by repeated  90kt squalls then finally rolled and dismasted by a passing Tsunami,  we would simply play the “Michael Fish card” ^{Note 1} – (it is only a forecast after all!)

Now the key here is to have weather forecasting skills to provide the subscriber with  “a forecast as close as possible to his preferences as conditions allow”. And here we have the Unique Selling  Proposition that will set us apart from  any copycat propositions.   That USP is Peter – one of our stalwart crew:

seen here resting his “brain the size of a planet”,  shielding it from the Sun during some well-deserved R&R.   It is by using his ability to detect any imminent  precipitation well ahead of we mere mortals  that by the time it actually manifests  as  H₂0 (whatever its phase  - steam, water or ice)  Peter  always manages to ensconce himself well below deck leaving the rest of us to tough it out in the hail and thunder.  Equally, if he is in the cockpit then we can be confident of sunshine and dry decks!  We will harness those same unique skills to make realistic weather predictions – always tailored to our subscribers’ preferences.

Investment Risks

None – you know you are going to lose your shirt whatever happens – you are “just in it for the fun”.

Subscriptions

Subscriptions are  now open for this, truly  “once-in-a-life-time”  investment opportunity. Cheques (made payable to cash) or other negotiable instruments should be posted to or deposited at Garden House. Email me for IBAN details if required. Subscriptions will close as soon as I  have enough cash to bugger off to Costa Rica for ever.

Yours,  aye

DC

Notes

1                     Pls read masculine interchangeably with feminine – at least  as far as his/her, she/he is concerned anyway!

2                     Michael Fish, a much loved  UK television “Weatherman” who famously, in October 1987, started his evening bulletin with his usual heart-warming smile and words to the effect that:

“I have just had a message from a lady in Somerset worried about there being a hurricane due this evening. Well you can all rest assured that there are no strong winds at all in prospect for the next 24 hours”

That evening saw some of the  strongest gales ever experienced in the South of England laying flat huge swathes of the oak forests in the Kentish Weald and causing £millions of damage etc. etc. etc.